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c:ps1-2:2019:lecturer

Let’s find the probability of getting a black or even (assume 0 and 00 are not even).

  1. What’s the probability of getting a black?
    • 18 / 38 = 0.474
  2. What’s the probability of getting an even number?
    • 18 / 38 = 0.474
  3. What do you get if you add these two probabilities together?
    • 0.947
  4. Finally, use your roulette board to count all the holes that are either black or even, then divide by the total number of holes. What do you get?
    • 26 / 38 = 0.684

If an aircraft is present in a certain area, a radar correctly registers its presence with probability 0.99. If it is not present, the radar falsely registers an aircraft presence with probability 0.10. We assume that an aircraft is present with probability 0.05. What is the probability of false alarm (a false indication of aircraft presence), and the probability of missed detection (nothing registers, even though an aircraft is present)?

https://brilliant.org/wiki/bayes-theorem/

c/ps1-2/2019/lecturer.txt · Last modified: 2019/10/02 21:36 by hkimscil