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Table of Contents
Multiple Regression
> datavar <- read.csv("http://commres.net/wiki/_media/r/dataset_hlr.csv") > str(datavar) 'data.frame': 29 obs. of 5 variables: $ YEAR : int 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 ... $ ROLL : int 5501 5945 6629 7556 8716 9369 9920 10167 11084 12504 ... $ UNEM : num 8.1 7 7.3 7.5 7 6.4 6.5 6.4 6.3 7.7 ... $ HGRAD: int 9552 9680 9731 11666 14675 15265 15484 15723 16501 16890 ... $ INC : int 1923 1961 1979 2030 2112 2192 2235 2351 2411 2475 ... >
onePredictorModel <- lm(ROLL ~ UNEM, data = datavar) twoPredictorModel <- lm(ROLL ~ UNEM + HGRAD, data = datavar) threePredictorModel <- lm(ROLL ~ UNEM + HGRAD + INC, data = datavar)
summary(onePredictorModel) summary(twoPredictorModel) summary(threePredictorModel)
> summary(onePredictorModel) Call: lm(formula = ROLL ~ UNEM, data = datavar) Residuals: Min 1Q Median 3Q Max -7640.0 -1046.5 602.8 1934.3 4187.2 Coefficients: Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|) (Intercept) 3957.0 4000.1 0.989 0.3313 UNEM 1133.8 513.1 2.210 0.0358 * --- Signif. codes: 0 ‘***’ 0.001 ‘**’ 0.01 ‘*’ 0.05 ‘.’ 0.1 ‘ ’ 1 Residual standard error: 3049 on 27 degrees of freedom Multiple R-squared: 0.1531, Adjusted R-squared: 0.1218 F-statistic: 4.883 on 1 and 27 DF, p-value: 0.03579
> summary(twoPredictorModel) Call: lm(formula = ROLL ~ UNEM + HGRAD, data = datavar) Residuals: Min 1Q Median 3Q Max -2102.2 -861.6 -349.4 374.5 3603.5 Coefficients: Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|) (Intercept) -8.256e+03 2.052e+03 -4.023 0.00044 *** UNEM 6.983e+02 2.244e+02 3.111 0.00449 ** HGRAD 9.423e-01 8.613e-02 10.941 3.16e-11 *** --- Signif. codes: 0 ‘***’ 0.001 ‘**’ 0.01 ‘*’ 0.05 ‘.’ 0.1 ‘ ’ 1 Residual standard error: 1313 on 26 degrees of freedom Multiple R-squared: 0.8489, Adjusted R-squared: 0.8373 F-statistic: 73.03 on 2 and 26 DF, p-value: 2.144e-11 >
> summary(threePredictorModel) Call: lm(formula = ROLL ~ UNEM + HGRAD + INC, data = datavar) Residuals: Min 1Q Median 3Q Max -1148.84 -489.71 -1.88 387.40 1425.75 Coefficients: Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|) (Intercept) -9.153e+03 1.053e+03 -8.691 5.02e-09 *** UNEM 4.501e+02 1.182e+02 3.809 0.000807 *** HGRAD 4.065e-01 7.602e-02 5.347 1.52e-05 *** INC 4.275e+00 4.947e-01 8.642 5.59e-09 *** --- Signif. codes: 0 ‘***’ 0.001 ‘**’ 0.01 ‘*’ 0.05 ‘.’ 0.1 ‘ ’ 1 Residual standard error: 670.4 on 25 degrees of freedom Multiple R-squared: 0.9621, Adjusted R-squared: 0.9576 F-statistic: 211.5 on 3 and 25 DF, p-value: < 2.2e-16
anova(onePredictorModel, twoPredictorModel, threePredictorModel) Analysis of Variance Table Model 1: ROLL ~ UNEM Model 2: ROLL ~ UNEM + HGRAD Model 3: ROLL ~ UNEM + HGRAD + INC Res.Df RSS Df Sum of Sq F Pr(>F) 1 27 251084710 2 26 44805568 1 206279143 458.92 < 2.2e-16 *** 3 25 11237313 1 33568255 74.68 5.594e-09 *** --- Signif. codes: 0 ‘***’ 0.001 ‘**’ 0.01 ‘*’ 0.05 ‘.’ 0.1 ‘ ’ 1 >
Housing
e.g.
etc
library(tidyverse) data("marketing", package = "datarium") head(marketing, 4)
- Data, marketing is the impact of the amount of money spent on three advertising medias (youtube, facebook and newspaper) on sales.
- Note that to list all the independent (explanatory) variables, you could use
lm (sales ~ ., data=“marketing”)
. - You could also use
-
sign to subtract ivs.lm(sales ~ . - newspapers, data = “marketing”)
mod <- lm(sales ~ . , data=marketing) summary(mod) summary(mod)$coefficients
mod2 <- lm(sales ~ . - newspaper, data = marketing) summary(mod2)
> mod <- lm(sales ~ . , data=marketing) > summary(mod) Call: lm(formula = sales ~ ., data = marketing) Residuals: Min 1Q Median 3Q Max -10.5932 -1.0690 0.2902 1.4272 3.3951 Coefficients: Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|) (Intercept) 3.526667 0.374290 9.422 <2e-16 *** youtube 0.045765 0.001395 32.809 <2e-16 *** facebook 0.188530 0.008611 21.893 <2e-16 *** newspaper -0.001037 0.005871 -0.177 0.86 --- Signif. codes: 0 ‘***’ 0.001 ‘**’ 0.01 ‘*’ 0.05 ‘.’ 0.1 ‘ ’ 1 Residual standard error: 2.023 on 196 degrees of freedom Multiple R-squared: 0.8972, Adjusted R-squared: 0.8956 F-statistic: 570.3 on 3 and 196 DF, p-value: < 2.2e-16 > summary(mod)$coefficients Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|) (Intercept) 3.526667243 0.374289884 9.4222884 1.267295e-17 youtube 0.045764645 0.001394897 32.8086244 1.509960e-81 facebook 0.188530017 0.008611234 21.8934961 1.505339e-54 newspaper -0.001037493 0.005871010 -0.1767146 8.599151e-01
> mod2 <- lm(sales ~ . - newspaper, data = marketing) > summary(mod2) Call: lm(formula = sales ~ . - newspaper, data = marketing) Residuals: Min 1Q Median 3Q Max -10.5572 -1.0502 0.2906 1.4049 3.3994 Coefficients: Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|) (Intercept) 3.50532 0.35339 9.919 <2e-16 *** youtube 0.04575 0.00139 32.909 <2e-16 *** facebook 0.18799 0.00804 23.382 <2e-16 *** --- Signif. codes: 0 ‘***’ 0.001 ‘**’ 0.01 ‘*’ 0.05 ‘.’ 0.1 ‘ ’ 1 Residual standard error: 2.018 on 197 degrees of freedom Multiple R-squared: 0.8972, Adjusted R-squared: 0.8962 F-statistic: 859.6 on 2 and 197 DF, p-value: < 2.2e-16
sales = 3.5 + 0.045*youtube + 0.187*facebook.
Prediction
Predict(lm.fit, newdata=data.frame(x1=c(2,3,4), x2=c(3,3,3))
Year <- c(2017, 2017, 2017, 2017, 2017, 2017, 2017, 2017, 2017, 2017, 2017, 2017, 2016, 2016, 2016, 2016, 2016, 2016, 2016, 2016, 2016, 2016, 2016, 2016) Month <- c(12, 11, 10, 9, 8, 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, 12, 11, 10, 9, 8, 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1) Interest_Rate <- c(2.75, 2.5, 2.5, 2.5, 2.5, 2.5, 2.5, 2.25, 2.25, 2.25, 2, 2, 2, 1.75, 1.75, 1.75, 1.75, 1.75, 1.75, 1.75, 1.75, 1.75, 1.75, 1.75) Unemployment_Rate <- c(5.3, 5.3, 5.3, 5.3, 5.4, 5.6, 5.5, 5.5, 5.5, 5.6, 5.7, 5.9, 6, 5.9, 5.8, 6.1, 6.2, 6.1, 6.1, 6.1, 5.9, 6.2, 6.2, 6.1) Stock_Index_Price <- c(1464, 1394, 1357, 1293, 1256, 1254, 1234, 1195, 1159, 1167, 1130, 1075, 1047, 965, 943, 958, 971, 949, 884, 866, 876, 822, 704, 719)
dat.stock <- data.frame(Year, Month, Interest_Rate, Unemployment_Rate, Stock_Index_Price) dat.stock Year Month Interest_Rate Unemployment_Rate Stock_Index_Price 1 2017 12 2.75 5.3 1464 2 2017 11 2.50 5.3 1394 3 2017 10 2.50 5.3 1357 4 2017 9 2.50 5.3 1293 5 2017 8 2.50 5.4 1256 6 2017 7 2.50 5.6 1254 7 2017 6 2.50 5.5 1234 8 2017 5 2.25 5.5 1195 9 2017 4 2.25 5.5 1159 10 2017 3 2.25 5.6 1167 11 2017 2 2.00 5.7 1130 12 2017 1 2.00 5.9 1075 13 2016 12 2.00 6.0 1047 14 2016 11 1.75 5.9 965 15 2016 10 1.75 5.8 943 16 2016 9 1.75 6.1 958 17 2016 8 1.75 6.2 971 18 2016 7 1.75 6.1 949 19 2016 6 1.75 6.1 884 20 2016 5 1.75 6.1 866 21 2016 4 1.75 5.9 876 22 2016 3 1.75 6.2 822 23 2016 2 1.75 6.2 704 24 2016 1 1.75 6.1 719 >
lm.stock <- lm(Stock_Index_Price~Interest_Rate+Unemployment_Rate, data=dat.stock) summary(lm.stock) lm.stock$coefficient coefficients(lm.stock)
> lm.stock <- lm(Stock_Index_Price~Interest_Rate+Unemployment_Rate, data=dat.stock) > summary(lm.stock) Call: lm(formula = Stock_Index_Price ~ Interest_Rate + Unemployment_Rate, data = dat.stock) Residuals: Min 1Q Median 3Q Max -158.205 -41.667 -6.248 57.741 118.810 Coefficients: Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|) (Intercept) 1798.4 899.2 2.000 0.05861 . Interest_Rate 345.5 111.4 3.103 0.00539 ** Unemployment_Rate -250.1 117.9 -2.121 0.04601 * --- Signif. codes: 0 ‘***’ 0.001 ‘**’ 0.01 ‘*’ 0.05 ‘.’ 0.1 ‘ ’ 1 Residual standard error: 70.56 on 21 degrees of freedom Multiple R-squared: 0.8976, Adjusted R-squared: 0.8879 F-statistic: 92.07 on 2 and 21 DF, p-value: 4.043e-11 > lm.stock$coefficient (Intercept) Interest_Rate Unemployment_Rate 1798.4040 345.5401 -250.1466 > coefficients(lm.stock) (Intercept) Interest_Rate Unemployment_Rate 1798.4040 345.5401 -250.1466 > >
dat.stock.new.iv <- data.frame(Interest_Rate=c(5,6,2,1), Unemployment_Rate=c(8,8.5,4,3)) predict(lm.stock, newdata=dat.stock.new.iv)
> dat.stock.new.iv <- data.frame(Interest_Rate=c(5,6,2,1), Unemployment_Rate=c(8,8.5,4,3)) > predict(lm.stock, newdata=dat.stock.new.iv) 1 2 3 4 1524.932 1745.399 1488.898 1393.504 >
Partial, Semi-partial Correlation and R squared value
아래에서, summary(lm.stock)은
> lm.stock <- lm(Stock_Index_Price~Interest_Rate+Unemployment_Rate, data=dat.stock) > summary(lm.stock) Call: lm(formula = Stock_Index_Price ~ Interest_Rate + Unemployment_Rate, data = dat.stock) Residuals: Min 1Q Median 3Q Max -158.205 -41.667 -6.248 57.741 118.810 Coefficients: Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|) (Intercept) 1798.4 899.2 2.000 0.05861 . Interest_Rate 345.5 111.4 3.103 0.00539 ** Unemployment_Rate -250.1 117.9 -2.121 0.04601 * --- Signif. codes: 0 ‘***’ 0.001 ‘**’ 0.01 ‘*’ 0.05 ‘.’ 0.1 ‘ ’ 1 Residual standard error: 70.56 on 21 degrees of freedom Multiple R-squared: 0.8976, Adjusted R-squared: 0.8879 F-statistic: 92.07 on 2 and 21 DF, p-value: 4.043e-11 >
> anova(lm.stock) Analysis of Variance Table Response: Stock_Index_Price Df Sum Sq Mean Sq F value Pr(>F) Interest_Rate 1 894463 894463 179.6477 9.231e-12 *** Unemployment_Rate 1 22394 22394 4.4977 0.04601 * Residuals 21 104559 4979 --- Signif. codes: 0 ‘***’ 0.001 ‘**’ 0.01 ‘*’ 0.05 ‘.’ 0.1 ‘ ’ 1 >
df | SS | ms | F | |
interest | 1 (a) | 894463 (1) | 894463 | 179.6471179 |
unemp | 1 (b) | 22394 (2) | 22394 | 4.497690299 |
res | 21 © | 104559 (3) | 4979 | |
total | 23 | 1021416 (4) | ||
interst + enemp | 916857 (5) |
(4) = (1) + (2) + (3)
(5) = (1) + (2)
from the above summary(lm.stock)
Multiple R-squared: 0.8976, . . . .
F-statistic: 92.07 on 2 and 21 DF, p-value: 4.043e-11
\begin{eqnarray*} R^2 & = & \dfrac {SS_{reg}}{SS_{total}} \\ & = & \dfrac{(5)}{(4)}, \qquad \text{from the table} \\ & = & \dfrac {916857}{1021416} \\ & = & 0.897633286 \\ & = & 0.8976 \end{eqnarray*}
\begin{eqnarray*} F & = & \dfrac {MS_{reg}} {MS_{res}} \\ & = & \dfrac {(5)/(a)+(b)}{(3)/(c)} \\ & = & \dfrac {916857/2}{104559/21} \\ & = & 92.0724041 \\ & = & 92.07 \qquad (df = 2, 21) \end{eqnarray*}
그런데, 각각의 IV와 DV 간의 correlation 값은:
> cor.test(Stock_Index_Price, Interest_Rate) Pearson's product-moment correlation data: Stock_Index_Price and Interest_Rate t = 12.45, df = 22, p-value = 1.954e-11 alternative hypothesis: true correlation is not equal to 0 95 percent confidence interval: 0.8552498 0.9721916 sample estimates: cor 0.9357932 > cor.test(Stock_Index_Price, Unemployment_Rate) Pearson's product-moment correlation data: Stock_Index_Price and Unemployment_Rate t = -11.196, df = 22, p-value = 1.487e-10 alternative hypothesis: true correlation is not equal to 0 95 percent confidence interval: -0.9662308 -0.8264284 sample estimates: cor -0.9223376 >
Stock_Index_Price ~ Interest_Rate = 0.9357932
Stock_Index_Price ~ Unemployment_Rate = -0.9223376
각각의 r square 값은
Stock_Index_Price ~ Interest_Rate -> 0.875708913
Stock_Index_Price ~ Unemployment_Rate -> 0.850706648
이 둘의 합은 1.726415562
로 1을 넘는다. 즉, 각 독립변인의 영향력은 중복 (독립변인 간의 상관관계) 되어 있다는 뜻.
install.packages("ppcor") library(ppcor)
> pcor.test(Stock_Index_Price, Interest_Rate, Unemployment_Rate) estimate p.value statistic n gp Method 1 0.560649 0.005389174 3.102717 24 1 pearson
> spcor.test(Stock_Index_Price, Interest_Rate, Unemployment_Rate) estimate p.value statistic n gp Method 1 0.2166264 0.3207966 1.016852 24 1 pearson
0.2166264^2 = 0.046926997
b + c / a + b + c + d = 0.8757
b / a + b + c + d = 0.0467
c / a + b + c + d = 0.8288
> spcor.test(Stock_Index_Price, Unemployment_Rate, Interest_Rate) estimate p.value statistic n gp Method 1 -0.1480697 0.5001535 -0.6861036 24 1 pearson >
(-0.1480697)^2 = 0.021924636 = 0.0219
d + c / a + b + c + d = 0.8507
d / a + b + c + d = 0.0219
c / a + b + c + d = 0.8288
위와 아래의 c / a + b + c + d = 0.8288 가 일치하므로, 독립변인 둘의 겹치는 영향력이 크다는 것을 알수 있다.
> lm.stock.int <- lm(Stock_Index_Price~Interest_Rate, data=dat.stock) > summary(lm.stock.int) Call: lm(formula = Stock_Index_Price ~ Interest_Rate, data = dat.stock) Residuals: Min 1Q Median 3Q Max -183.892 -30.181 4.455 56.608 101.057 Coefficients: Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|) (Intercept) -99.46 95.21 -1.045 0.308 Interest_Rate 564.20 45.32 12.450 1.95e-11 *** --- Signif. codes: 0 ‘***’ 0.001 ‘**’ 0.01 ‘*’ 0.05 ‘.’ 0.1 ‘ ’ 1 Residual standard error: 75.96 on 22 degrees of freedom Multiple R-squared: 0.8757, Adjusted R-squared: 0.8701 F-statistic: 155 on 1 and 22 DF, p-value: 1.954e-11
> lm.stock.unemp <- lm(Stock_Index_Price ~ Unemployment_Rate, data=dat.stock) > summary(lm.stock.unemp) Call: lm(formula = Stock_Index_Price ~ Unemployment_Rate, data = dat.stock) Residuals: Min 1Q Median 3Q Max -159.671 -41.996 2.089 72.381 151.226 Coefficients: Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|) (Intercept) 4471.3 304.2 14.7 7.41e-13 *** Unemployment_Rate -589.0 52.6 -11.2 1.49e-10 *** --- Signif. codes: 0 ‘***’ 0.001 ‘**’ 0.01 ‘*’ 0.05 ‘.’ 0.1 ‘ ’ 1 Residual standard error: 83.25 on 22 degrees of freedom Multiple R-squared: 0.8507, Adjusted R-squared: 0.8439 F-statistic: 125.4 on 1 and 22 DF, p-value: 1.487e-10 > >
> anova(lm.stock.int, lm.stock.unemp) Analysis of Variance Table Model 1: Stock_Index_Price ~ Interest_Rate Model 2: Stock_Index_Price ~ Unemployment_Rate Res.Df RSS Df Sum of Sq F Pr(>F) 1 22 126953 2 22 152491 0 -25538
> anova(lm.stock.int, lm.stock) Analysis of Variance Table Model 1: Stock_Index_Price ~ Interest_Rate Model 2: Stock_Index_Price ~ Interest_Rate + Unemployment_Rate Res.Df RSS Df Sum of Sq F Pr(>F) 1 22 126953 2 21 104559 1 22394 4.4977 0.04601 * --- Signif. codes: 0 ‘***’ 0.001 ‘**’ 0.01 ‘*’ 0.05 ‘.’ 0.1 ‘ ’ 1 > anova(lm.stock.enemp, lm.stock) Error in anova(lm.stock.enemp, lm.stock) : object 'lm.stock.enemp' not found > anova(lm.stock.unemp, lm.stock) Analysis of Variance Table Model 1: Stock_Index_Price ~ Unemployment_Rate Model 2: Stock_Index_Price ~ Interest_Rate + Unemployment_Rate Res.Df RSS Df Sum of Sq F Pr(>F) 1 22 152491 2 21 104559 1 47932 9.6269 0.005389 ** --- Signif. codes: 0 ‘***’ 0.001 ‘**’ 0.01 ‘*’ 0.05 ‘.’ 0.1 ‘ ’ 1 >